Photo by Kenny Bahr.

Sometimes the best way to start a deer forecast is by looking at the past. Tennessee hunters set a harvest record back in 2004 when we harvested 179,542 whitetails. The 2005 season was also a banner year, with 166,071 deer tagged by Volunteer hunters, but was a bit of a letdown after such a great hunt the prior year. However, the truth is, the letdown was expected: The mast crop was so strong that year that the deer didn't have to travel much. Able to feed in or near their bedding areas, they spent less time moving past hunters' stands during daylight. Couple that with some extreme weather conditions on opening weekend, and you can read the writing on the wall.

Last year in our 2006 Deer Outlook, we predicted a turnaround and were right on the money. The Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA) told us that a down year in 2005 with increased mast and a healthier herd would translate into a good deer season in 2006 -- and it did. For the first time in history, Tennessee hunters took over 180,000 whitetails during last year's hunts.

With the aid of the TWRA's Web site, hunters were able to keep an eye on the harvest as it developed statewide. When the end of the season came, Tennessee hunters harvested an astounding 174,937 whitetails on the statewide hunts alone. That's nearly as high as the overall harvest record set in 2004.

Add the wildlife management area (WMA) harvests of 7,156 to that total, and you get our new all-time harvest record of 182,093 deer killed.

Go ahead and pat yourselves on the back -- but get ready at the same time to set a new record in 2007. The factors are right for a prime deer-hunting season this year, too. Let's take a look at where the deer came from in 2006 and why the upcoming season should be the best of all time once again.

THE 2006 DEER HUNTS AND BEYOND
Daryl Ratajczak didn't get the position of TWRA's big-game program coordinator without knowing plenty about deer and deer habits. Knowing what he knows, Ratajczak said he and other biologists weren't surprised about the record whitetail harvest in the Volunteer State during the 2006 seasons. With two back-to-back years of excellent hard-mast production, he actually predicted the new record harvest in last year's Deer Outlook. He said he expected the new record but was a little surprised at just how big a harvest we had last year.

The state's big-game coordinator is also a deer hunter and knows that heavy mast crops can make the deer hunting harder. But ultimately, good mast years have an important benefit: Years with plenty of food in the woods lead to good survival rates, add to the health of the does in the herd, and aid bucks in growing antlers. With that said, Ratajczak had the upcoming 2007 hunts on his mind.

"Let me make a bold prediction," Ratajczak said. "We'll break 200,000 deer in 2007 -- or get real close."

He bases his prediction on a number of factors. First, very favorable conditions are likely to be in place this year for hunters: Last April's late freeze is expected to decimate hard mast production all across the state. He said low mast equals a big harvest, and the herd is primed for it. Hunters can expect a big effect from the April freeze on this year's hunts. Ratajczak said we'll see harvest increases across the board in 2007, with nearly every county in the state producing more deer.

The same hopeful situation will exist at WMAs across Tennessee in 2007. The WMA harvests have been increasing steadily since 2003 and were over 7,000 deer for the first time or at least since records were kept in 1950. The 7,156 public-land deer taken in 2006 may have been a record, but the take should be even higher this season. Ratajczak said the WMA structure has changed greatly over the years with some areas added and other lost. However, the biggest difference at any successful WMA is the fact we're seeing better quality deer coming from those hunts. He said the moral of the story is public-land hunts still offer a good option for Tennessee hunters.

Each year, weather plays a significant role in our deer harvest. In 2006, Ratajczak said most of the season featured great hunting conditions. In 2005, the opening weekend of the muzzleloader hunt was way down because of unusually warm weather. One year later in 2006, the weather was prime and hunters took over 12,000 more deer on the opening muzzleloader weekend.

He added that last season each weapon's opening weekend had pretty nice deer hunting weather, and the harvests showed it. Since the opening weekend of any hunt has the highest participation, they are crucial to a successful harvest year. In 2006, Ratajczak said the weather around the prime rutting period in mid-November was also good and helped to lead to the new harvest record as well.

All of Tennessee is not created equal. Richer soils with bountiful row crops in Region I and Region II produce healthier deer and a more numerous herd. In East Tennessee, Ratajczak said the deer herd is still increasing, and that increase fits the management plan. Regions II and IV are still managed with the mindset that you don't want to over-harvest does. Doe survival leads to growth where it's needed. In the eastern portion of the state in Unit B, the management plan is still about protection.