With the word from the spring duck surveys on the prairies not the most positive one on record, Volunteer waterfowl hunters have plenty to be concerned about with the fast-approaching duck and goose seasons.

If we've learned anything about hunting and fishing in this state, you can't always predict what's going to happen. With duck hunting, that couldn't be more true than in the last five or six years. We've seen up and down seasons, some dry runs and some very unexpected successes.

What it all boils down to is it's still just hunting. You can't kill them sitting on the couch, and the last time I went duck hunting it wasn't all about the kill anyway. It's time to straighten things out a bit, get in the blind -- some ducks just might show up.

THE NUMBERS GAME
Duck season is about predictions and, in modern times, budget cuts. It doesn't take a genius to know that the future of duck hunting lies with what we do now to protect duck habitat. That lesson was learned decades ago. Let's look at the status of current waterfowl populations based on what's happening in the prairie potholes that produce ducks for hunters in the fall.

Back in the summer, Ducks Unlimited (DU) responded to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) release of its preliminary report on mid-continent breeding ducks and habitats, based on surveys conducted in May and early June. DU said total duck populations were estimated at 37.3 million breeding ducks on the surveyed area. This estimate represents a 9 percent decline over last year's estimate of 41.2 million birds but remains 11 percent above the 1955-2007 long-term average.

DU added that one of the most important elements in duck breeding success is the amount of water present in portions of prairie and parkland Canada and the north-central United States. Total pond counts for the United States and Canada combined showed 4.4 million ponds, a 37 percent decrease from last year's estimate, and 10 percent below the long-term average.

DU said the mallard population was 7 percent below last year. An estimated 7.7 million mallards were on traditionally surveyed areas this spring, compared with last year's estimate of 8.3 million birds. However, mallard numbers were similar to the long-term average.

The positive news coming out of this year's survey continues to be for redheads, green-winged teal and scaup. For the second straight year, redheads remained more than 1 million birds (66 percent over the long-term average). Green-winged teal populations remained similar to the level in 2007 and were 57 percent more than the long-term average.

Scaup numbers appear to have stabilized at similar levels for the last eight years remaining at 3.7 million in 2008, similar to the 3.5 million surveyed in 2007. Breeding scaup numbers remain 27 percent less than their long-term average, however.

DU said as expected, some breeding populations declined as habitat conditions deteriorated from 2007 to 2008. Although six of the 10 commonly surveyed species showed no significant change, four species declined appreciably. Notable declines were in numbers of breeding canvasbacks (down 44 percent from 2007), northern pintails (down 22 percent), gadwalls (down 19 percent) and northern shovelers (down 23 percent).

Canvasbacks were at an estimated 489,000 breeding birds in the survey area, 14 percent less than their long-term average. Pintail numbers declined to 2.6 million, 36 percent less than the long-term average. Despite declines from 2007 in numbers of gadwalls and shovelers, populations remain well over long-term averages (both up 56 percent).