Photo by Robert Sloan.

You can't go duck hunting -- even in good spots -- more than about three times before you realize that there are no sure bets for taking waterfowl in Tennessee (or the rest of the country for that matter). The secret to duck and goose hunting success is being out there, gaining experience and spending time in the blind. The rest will just happen.

We've taken some time to look at what hunters can expect from this year's fall flights and prospects from around the country and specifically here in Tennessee. We've also thrown in a quick look or two at where you can find ducks and geese in solid numbers in the Volunteer State. Keep in mind, though, that a good spot to hunt ducks under the right conditions is only part of the equation for duck-hunting success. No matter what the fall flight or the weather is like, the guys who shoot the most ducks are the guys who are out in the blinds regardless of what weather Mother Nature throws at them.

FALL FLIGHT OR NOT?
Each year, I like to touch base with Ducks Unlimited's media relations biologist Mike Checkett for the first look at how the fall flight may be shaping up. Although the USFWS May pond and breeding pair counts were incomplete as far as analysis goes at this writing, Checkett said the North Dakota Department of Game and Fish conducts its own long-running waterfowl survey each spring by means of roadside counts along standard survey routes. Although their survey roughly correlates with patterns observed in the May Survey, there is annual variation between the two.

The North Dakota Game and Fish Department's 60th annual spring breeding duck survey showed an index of more than 3.2 million birds, down 13 percent from last year but still 51 percent above the long-term average.

The survey, conducted May 7-11, showed duck indices were down or unchanged from 2006, depending on the species. Mallards, pintails, gadwalls, widgeon, scaup and ruddy ducks were about the same as last year. Green-winged teal (35 percent) and canvasbacks (30 percent) had the most significant decreases. However, all species except pintails remained above the 1948-2006 average.

The 2007 water index was up 39 percent from 2006 and 43 percent above long term. Mike Johnson, game management section leader, cautions that the index is based on basins with water, and does not necessarily represent the amount of water contained in wetlands.

"Our survey crews indicated that many wet basins held very little water at the time of the survey, and that a high percentage of ponds that had small amounts of water would soon be totally dry without the addition of significant precipitation," he said.

Reports suggest South Dakota is experiencing significantly improved water conditions, due primarily to late winter and early spring precipitation. In addition, reports from Canada indicate that for the third consecutive year much of the prairie pothole region and parklands continue to experience good to excellent water conditions.

An analysis of the July brood survey will provide a better idea of duck production, and a better insight into what to expect this fall, Johnson said.

"Our observations to date indicate that production may be reduced in much of the state due to dry conditions and reduced wetland availability for brood production," he added. "However, fall weather always has a big impact on the success of the hunting season."

Checkett knows weather is the key to duck movement. He added weather and habitat conditions, both continentally and within a specific region, influence waterfowl migration and subsequent hunter opportunity and harvest.

Last year, Checkett said Tennessee did very well when early fronts and snowstorms pushed large numbers of birds south. Hunting became cold quickly as temperatures rose after Christmas and unseasonably warm weather lingered throughout much of January.

What happens in Canada in the spring affects what happens in Tennessee in the fall and winter. Checkett said the Atlantic Provinces migration was in full swing by early April in Atlantic Canada, as large numbers of waterfowl returned to their breeding grounds. Wetland habitats are in very good shape throughout the region, boding well for this year's breeding effort.